Module16: Anticipating and Planning for the Future

In this section:

Evolving technologies in:

Hardware
Software
Networks

It may help you complete your class project and plan for growth if you consider the future of the technologies you are exploring. Take a look at the information on topics that are relevant to your project by taking notes on specific technologies from the links following each of the sections below. Please note that most of the links are from the Ziff-Davis site, which is one of the best starting points for any investigation of current or future technology.

 


Evolving Technologies: Hardware

Technology has always been dictated by advances in hardware. What advances in hardware will the future hold? 

Perhaps the most important advances in hardware occur in the microprocessor industry. A microprocessor is the "brain" which powers all computers. As advances in micro processing technology are made, computing power increases. It is a common belief that processing power doubles itself every eighteen months. For example, the Pentium II 233 MHz processor you buy today, in theory, will be doubled to 466 MHz in 18 months. If this formula holds true, then the future of computer power and efficiency is a bright one.

What about storage? How much information can users accommodate and how fast can they access it locally?  The answer to this question lies in storage. Currently there are four main storage technologies. 

They are as follows:

Storage Type:

Capacity:

Hard Disk

Current Maximum of Approximately 8 Gigabytes

Floppy Disk

1.44 Megabytes

Removable Media (Zip Disks, Tape Backup, etc.)

Varies, but does not exceed 1 Gigabyte

CD-ROM

660 Megabytes

How do these present day storage types fit in with the computing needs of the future? In light of the explosion of the Internet as an information medium, the large size of present and undoubtedly future software applications, it is evident that storage means must increase along with processing power for technology to remain efficient. What is the solution? The solution, may lie in a technology presently in its infancy known as Digital Video Disk (DVD). DVD is a disk based system which stores, on a disk the same size as a present day compact disks, anywhere from 4.2 Gigabytes to an astonishing 17 Gigabytes. DVD's promises of high speed, high storage capacity, and its rewritability make it a viable candidate as the storage medium of the future.

To conclude our discussion of hardware, consider the monitor. Today's displays range from 14" to 21".  What does the future hold for the monitor? As display technology progresses the move is toward Flat Panel Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) technology. LCD monitors would provide future users with a large, lightweight, and slim display unit. Many LCD monitors already available are suitable to be hung on a wall, and are no thicker than an average picture frame. This technology will change the way users work both individually and cooperatively in a group atmosphere. 

Related Links:

 
Evolving Technologies: Software

As stated earlier, hardware is the driving force behind technology, but it is software which brings the technology to the masses by being "user friendly". As advances in software are made, greater efficiency in productivity is being matched by increasing ease of use. 

Current presentation software is a good example of this increasing ease of use. It can add to the impact of presentations made by educators. It can motivate students by allowing them to make professional quality presentations. It can lure otherwise reluctant teachers to experiment with presentation technology because it tends to be user friendly and time efficient.

What is the future of presentation software? Today, Microsoft PowerPoint dominates the presentations market with a traditional software package. What if there were a universal means of delivering software presentations? The future of technology may just provide one, in the form of the World Wide Web. In theory, the World Wide Web is a software independent platform, which means it is not restricted by the specific type of software. 

Such software independence would solve many of the headaches associated with current presentation technology. No longer would the presenter be limited by file types or other software limitations, since the presentation itself would be web based. With the web supplying the presentation software, presenters would no longer be burdened with standardization pressures due to differing software. The web as a presentation platform would provide a means to share a presentation to numerous individuals in numerous areas simultaneously without the need of anything besides a web browser.

Software manufactures are interested in how we will use our computers in the future. It is safe to assume that the personal computer will always emphasize word processing tasks, spreadsheets, data entry, etc. What other software will we be using in the future? While it is hard to determine which areas software vendors will pursue, current strategies include the convergence of software into home appliances, TV's, and home and business security systems. Digital portfolios will most likely become the standard means of evaluating both students and employees, because the diversity of assessment measures includes items like resumes, letters of reference, scanned artifacts, photos, video clips, audio clips, etc.

Related Links:


Technology Adoption: Networks

Networking is an essential part of future technologies. The future of networks in terms of Local Area Networks (LANs, computers connected together but not necessarily connected to the Internet) will be characterized by higher bandwidths and greater server resources.

What about intranets? Intranets use the same protocols and specifications as the Internet, but exist to serve a group of individuals, such as a school or corporation. Intranets provide a means of sharing information among a large group with the benefits of the Internet, but with the security of an intranet via firewalls.

The Internet as we know it today has the potential to branch out into all areas of computing. The Internet will expand its role as information source and become its own user platform. It is the theory of some computer analysts that the Internet will replace present day operating systems. Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, has challenged the very existence of the personal computer by proposing web-based applications tailored to specific user needs and accessible via fast modems. Bill Gates has publicly expressed his goal of eliminating the keyboard by developing voice activated programs.

Such visionary proclamations hint at a future that will yield realities far beyond our current understandings.

Page authors: David Georgi and Jeff Carter
URL: http://edweb.sdsu.edu/courses/EDTEC596R/module16/connect.html
Last updated: February 21, 1998