PBL Exercise 5

Everything has consequences. Part of the skill of making good decisions lies in anticipating those consequences and estimating the likelihood of their desirability.

Decision Tree Analysis is designed specifically to generate consequences and probabilities. To gain an appreciation for how it works, imagine that you are President Bush and that you have yet another important decision lying before you. Opposition to American involvement in Iraq continues to rise and it's dragging down the prospects of your anointed successor, John McCain. To avoid handing the Oval Office over to a Democrat, you have to do something. But what?

Use a decision tree to generate two or three possible choices, two or three second-level choices that follow from each, and try to find the best way forward. As The Decider, this should be second nature to you. The Senator eagerly awaits your plan.